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PolicySpy

External


Since: May 28, 2008
Posts: 30



(Msg. 1) Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:37 am
Post subject: Auto Industry Rescue
Archived from groups: alt>news-media, others (more info?)

Now the U.S. auto industry is in financial trouble...

And the President-Elect proposal is that the U.S. auto industry get $50
billion in loans and then have a Czar that oversees agreements related to
the loans.

Well the Mexicans had a saying during their own financial crisis of
"privatizing profits but nationalizing losses"...

But if government support is given to the auto industry then the government
should become the dominate shareholder even to the point of diluting the
current shareholders. Then years into the future when the auto industry is
doing better the government can sell its holdings at fixed price offerings.
And that's the only fundamentally true method...

Well when U.S. government put capital into the U.S. banks a few weeks
ago...the terms of the deals were better for the banks and their
shareholders than they were for the U.S. government. The only defense for
that is that the financial sector is very large and the stock market was
supported by deals favorable to the banks. And society holds large stock
positions in their retirement accounts. But where are we now ? The U.S.
government should have just taken more advantageous equity positions. (But
have you ever seen anyone try harder than Treasury Secretary HP ?)

Now GM said that they needed $12 billion to pay monthly bills ? And how
many months is that ? But GM needs to reduce their number of car models and
put some imports on their car lots ?

Well here's something else in the news...Boeing executives are all but
saying that then next newly designed airliner model (years into the future)
can't be built in Washington state because of the advantage that the unions
have there.

Now the airlines went into bankruptcy a couple of years ago partly because
of pension benefit obligations. But the airlines got government funds a
couple of years before the bankruptcies during a national emergency of the
WTC attacks.

But the U.S. auto industry ?

Well with Ford the Fusion is okay, the Mustang is popular, and the Mercury
LS is gone. With GM there is Cadilliac CTS, Saturn Aura, the Corvette, the
Solstice, and not much else.

And does any U.S. auto maker have a car similar to the rear-wheel-drive BMW
3-Series two-door and four-door? Oh...well the Mustang V-6 is similar if
I've got the Mustang weight correctly but the Mustang has a large and
obsolete V-6. And the Aura is front-wheel-drive...

And how about this...does any U.S. auto maker have an inline five-cyclinder
engine for sedans like VW instead of very large inline four-cyclinder
engines that are noisy, prone to vibration, and slow reving ?

Of course Ford does have a very good 3.0 V-6 while Cadillac had a 2.8 V-6 a
couple of years ago...

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PolicySpy

External


Since: May 28, 2008
Posts: 30



(Msg. 2) Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:48 am
Post subject: Re: Auto Industry Rescue [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

> Now the U.S. auto industry is in financial trouble...
>
> And the President-Elect proposal is that the U.S. auto industry get $50
> billion in loans and then have a Czar that oversees agreements related to
> the loans.
>
> Well the Mexicans had a saying during their own financial crisis of
> "privatizing profits but nationalizing losses"...
>
> But if government support is given to the auto industry then the
> government should become the dominate shareholder even to the point of
> diluting the current shareholders. Then years into the future when the
> auto industry is doing better the government can sell its holdings at
> fixed price offerings. And that's the only fundamentally true method...
>
> Well when U.S. government put capital into the U.S. banks a few weeks
> ago...the terms of the deals were better for the banks and their
> shareholders than they were for the U.S. government. The only defense for
> that is that the financial sector is very large and the stock market was
> supported by deals favorable to the banks. And society holds large stock
> positions in their retirement accounts. But where are we now ? The U.S.
> government should have just taken more advantageous equity positions. (But
> have you ever seen anyone try harder than Treasury Secretary HP ?)
>
> Now GM said that they needed $12 billion to pay monthly bills ? And how
> many months is that ? But GM needs to reduce their number of car models
> and put some imports on their car lots ?
>
> Well here's something else in the news...Boeing executives are all but
> saying that then next newly designed airliner model (years into the
> future) can't be built in Washington state because of the advantage that
> the unions have there.
>
> Now the airlines went into bankruptcy a couple of years ago partly because
> of pension benefit obligations. But the airlines got government funds a
> couple of years before the bankruptcies during a national emergency of the
> WTC attacks.
>
> But the U.S. auto industry ?
>
> Well with Ford the Fusion is okay, the Mustang is popular, and the Mercury
> LS is gone. With GM there is Cadilliac CTS, Saturn Aura, the Corvette, the
> Solstice, and not much else.
>
> And does any U.S. auto maker have a car similar to the rear-wheel-drive
> BMW 3-Series two-door and four-door? Oh...well the Mustang V-6 is similar
> if I've got the Mustang weight correctly but the Mustang has a large and
> obsolete V-6. And the Aura is front-wheel-drive...
>
> And how about this...does any U.S. auto maker have an inline
> five-cyclinder engine for sedans like VW instead of very large inline
> four-cyclinder engines that are noisy, prone to vibration, and slow
> revving ?
>
> Of course Ford does have a very good 3.0 V-6 while Cadillac had a 2.8 V-6
> a couple of years ago...

Oh...the Cadillac 2.8 V-6 was a smaller version of the 3.6 V-6. That means
that there was combustion chamber size reduction but not weight reduction
with the smaller engine. Compare to the Ford 3.0 V-6 which I'll assume was
designed to be the size that it is...

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PolicySpy

External


Since: May 28, 2008
Posts: 30



(Msg. 3) Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 2:33 am
Post subject: Re: Auto Industry Rescue [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

Now there's a U.S. auto industry bailout plan for $25 billion in loans. And
according to the plan the auto makers would have to meet standards of fuel
efficiency for their competitiveness, they would have to produce advanced
vehicles, and they would have to restructure for long term viability.

Well requiring that the auto makers meet fuel efficiency standards could
likely just push them to produce small cars that consumers might not get
into. See the U.S. consumer will accept cars of normal size that weigh less
but the U.S. consumer is not going to accept simply smaller cars. Or the
auto makers might be pushed into smaller engines in the current size and
weight cars and that would represent a loss of performace standards. Then
the consumer might not accept the drop in performance standards. (Now the
auto makers are not inclined to produce standard size vehicles that weigh
less because they want to maintain the uni-body method of construction.)

But the auto makers would be required to produce advanced vehicles ? Now the
problem with advanced vehicles is expense, inconvenience, and possibly loss
of performance standard...unless they are talking about advanced vehicles
that are not really advanced. In that case they might be talking about
gas/electric hybrids, about natural gas vehicles, about turbo diesels, about
small gas tubo engines, about lightweight technology such as that used by
Lotus cars, or about engines with four-valve heads, VVT, and direct fuel
injection.

Well...there is an existing proving ground of what works...and it's a big
proving ground...it's Europe. And what has worked for auto makers in Europe
who want to maintain the uni-body method of construction...is the turbo
diesel. (The gas/electric hybird is no contest as performance standards are
not maintained and as its small mileage advantage is lost on cross country
driving.) Now the 50 state MB E-Class turbo diesel gets about 10% less fuel
mileage than the 45 state MB E-Class Turbo diesel so the turbo diesel
struggles a little here.

Now an advanced vehicle could be a vehicle that uses lightweight technology
like Lotus cars or even like the Chevrolet Corvette. (But that gives up the
uni-body method of construction and the car makers will do anything but
that.) And the lightweight vehicle could have an engine with four-valve
heads, VVT, and direct fuel injection.

But we know that U.S. politicians favor gas/electric hybrids. Of course they
don't understand that the hybrid using a base engine and carrying two
powerplants represents a loss of performance standard. Or that the vehicle
characteristics are not consistent as the car switches between powerplants.

So my plan for advanced vehicles would simply be to limit engine size and
let the car makers scale the vehicle weight to the engine size. Four and
five cylinder engines would be limited to 1.8 size, six cylinder engines
would be limited to 2.8 size, and eight cylinder engines would be limited to
3.2 size. And all engines would be required to have four-valve heads, VVT,
and direct fuel injection rather than port fuel injection. But since I
already mentioned that the auto makers might be pushed into making cars that
are too small or pushed into using smaller engines in current cars...then a
minimum power-to-weight ratio might be required for each category and a
minimum wheelbase length might be required for each category. Wow !
Designing cars by legislation gets out of hand quickly...

But the auto makers must restructure for long term viability ? Sure but my
plan for putting capital into the U.S. auto makers would be that the
government buys shares of stock with the capital put in and the cost of the
stock would be the 52 week stock low. Then if the auto makers could not
issue that much stock they could make semi-annual payments on a loan value
and pay in cash or pay in stock (valued at the 52 week low).

But a restructured U.S. auto industry simply owing loands might manufacture
in Mexico ?
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PolicySpy

External


Since: May 28, 2008
Posts: 30



(Msg. 4) Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 3:50 am
Post subject: Re: Auto Industry Rescue [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

> Now there's a U.S. auto industry bailout plan for $25 billion in loans.
> And according to the plan the auto makers would have to meet standards of
> fuel efficiency for their competitiveness, they would have to produce
> advanced vehicles, and they would have to restructure for long term
> viability.
>

Oh a compromise is needed...so if requiring that the U.S. auto makers
produce advanced vehicles...then just require engines with four-valve-heads,
VVT, and direct fuel injection rather than port fuel injection. Of course
that's in addition to the fact that they will have to meet CAFE standards
anyway...

Now since that's both a 10% increase in fuel mileage and a 10% increase in
power...then limit four-cylinder and five-cylinder engines to 2.16 size,
limit six-cylinder engines to 3.24 size, and limit 8-cylinder engines to
4.14 size. Of course I just reduced a 2.4 engine to 2.16, a 3.6 engine to
3.24, and a 4.6 engine to 4.14. But that would apply to all cars domestic
and imported. But surely they can reduce weight 5% so limit the four and
five cylinder engines to 2.04 size, limit the six cylinder engines to 3.06
size, and limit the eight cylinder engines to 3.91 size.
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lorad

External


Since: Nov 16, 2008
Posts: 1



(Msg. 5) Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 2:01 pm
Post subject: Re: Auto Industry Rescue [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Nov 12, 11:37 pm, "PolicySpy" <PInt....RemoveThis@notmail.com> wrote:
> Now the U.S. auto industry is in financial trouble...
>
> And the President-Elect proposal is that the U.S. auto industry get $50
> billion in loans and then have a Czar that oversees agreements related to
> the loans.

Sounds good...saving US jobs, wealth, industrial base, and revenue
stream.
Let's do it.
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PolicySpy

External


Since: May 28, 2008
Posts: 30



(Msg. 6) Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2008 4:54 pm
Post subject: Re: Auto Industry Rescue [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

> Now the U.S. auto industry is in financial trouble...
>

And the debate is growing about a U.S. auto industry bailout...

Well for example...let's bailout GM. GM gets $12 billion in government funds
while the government gets four-billion GM shares in exchange. Now the
current shareholders with 610.46 million shares go from owning 100% of the
company to owning 13.24% of the company. And so the government becomes
86.76% owner of the newly re-capitalized company. Now the government as the
dominate shareholder can put its own board of directors in place to run the
company. And in some future year when things are better the government can
sell its holding at a fixed price offering. Also if the current shareholders
do not want to authorize the new share issue then they could have a tender
offer made to them at $3 a share and good for a year in exchange for the
authorization. And so if the current shareholders are bought out then the
total bailout goes from $12 billion to $13.8 billion. Now if we predict that
the company is good for $100 billion in revenue during future years then
that's a price-to-sales ratio of...a very low number.

So the question is...will $12 billion in funds save GM ?
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